Yesterday, in an interview with Washington Street Journal editor Jason Riley, National Review correspondent Robert Costa discussed Sarah Palin and the likeliehood that she would jump into the 2012 Presidential race. They both agree that Palin has been teasing long enough but they are not sure when it will end. Costa believes that it could end this weekend in Iowa.
Assuming that Palin does jump in Costa thinks that while she may shake up the field he doesn’t think that she improves the current field because the block that she represents, such as the tea party and evangelicals, already have numerous candidates like Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and others who have already made an impression in the polls. Riley observes that if Palin enters then the right wing vote could be split leaving the field open for Mitt Romney.
Both Riley and Costa say that Perry is more concerned than any one else about Palin entering the race because they have been political allies in the past and have a similar political perspective therefore each of them appeals to a similar demographic voter. Palin would have the advantage of jumping in after Perry and even though his poll numbers are quite high at the moment this could change with the entry of a new face on the scene. Costa makes the point that if Perry’s rating could jump so quickly then so possibly could Palin’s. Bachmann’s poll figures were also high immediately following her entry into the foray.
All eyes will be on Iowa this weekend and whilst I think that she will jump in all guns a blazing and barrels pointed towards President Obama she will stop short of announcing her entry until nearer the end of September/beginning of October. If she announces during her speech in Iowa I will be surprised.